In 2019, the story of the world economy did not play out according to optimistic predictions. Due to the major impact of international politics, geopolitics and the deterioration of relations between major countries, especially the severe impact of the trade war launched by the United States, the world economy in 2019 was shaky. The IMF lowered its full-year economic growth forecast four times, from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to 3% in October.
The OECD has also been cutting its forecasts for world growth. Lawrence Boone, the OECD's chief economist, expressed concern that global growth was under increasing pressure. 'The global economy is now locked in a synchronized slowdown,' the IMF said in its October World Economic Outlook report. In 2018, there were three countries in the world whose GDP grew by more than 8% : Rwanda (8.67%) in Africa, Guinea (8.66%) and Ireland (8.17%) in Europe; Six countries with GDP growth of more than 7% are Bangladesh, Libya, Cambodia, Cote d 'Ivoire, Tajikistan and Vietnam.
GDP growth was higher than 6% in 18 countries, 5% in 8, and 4% in 23. But in 2019, all of these countries saw their economic growth rates decline to varying degrees. The top 15 economies in the world in 2018 were the United States, China, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, India, Italy, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Australia and Mexico.
Their economic trends have a significant impact on the global economy.
Most of the top 15 economies saw declines in 2019, albeit by different magnitudes. India's GDP growth, for example, fell to 4.7%, halved from 2018. The European economy continues to languish, with Germany and France struggling, and the Brexit economy stagnating. Japan's GDP grew at an annual rate of just 0.2%, and South Korea's at an annual rate of just 0.4%.
The seemingly strong US economy, thanks to Trump's trade war and continued quantitative easing, is actually "killing a thousand enemies at their own cost", and the prospect of manufacturing reshoring, which the Trump administration is looking forward to, is bleak.
Global investors have mostly taken a wait-and-see approach to the U.S. economy because of the uncertainty caused by the trade war. Among the top 15 economies, China has a large economy and a high base. Despite the difficulties encountered this year, China's economic performance in terms of GDP growth is still the best in the world.
Post time: Nov-14-2022